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Quantumania Set To Have The MCU’s Worst Second-Week Box Office Drop
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Quantumania Set To Have The MCU’s Worst Second-Week Box Office Drop

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is about to gain another unwanted record if this weekend’s box office predictions hold true.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania did exactly what was expected when it arrived in theaters last week, shooting straight to the top of the box office chart and delivering the biggest opening weekend of the year so far. The weekend takings alone saw the movie make more than five times the nearest Hollywood movie’s grosses for the year so far, but as the first big movie of 2023, that was not exactly a surprise. However, the MCU movie is projected to have the worst second-week drop-off of any MCU movie ever.

After taking $118 million across the four-day holiday weekend last week, $104 million of which came in the regular three-day window, this weekend is projecting a box office of just $30-32 million, a 70% drop week on week. In context, this would be worse than the 67.8% drop seen by Black Widow in 2021, although that movie suffered from a day and date dual release, and Thor: Love and Thunder’s 67.7%.


While 70% would be a huge drop-off, the general drop for Marvel movies sits between 63-68% due to the audience being split between the large number of fans that have to see the film on release to avoid spoilers and those who drop in when they can over the movie’s run. So unlike other movies with middling opening weekends and smaller drop-offs, there will be very little to stop Marvel Studios’ output from seeing this kind of week one and two difference continuing.

Related: Ant-Man 3 Is Tied with Eternals as Lowest-Rated Marvel Movie on Rotten Tomatoes

Should Marvel Be Worried About the Huge Second Week Drop?

MCU Phase 4 Movies
Marvel Studios / Disney

While on paper, losing 70% of your weekend gross week on week looks nothing short of horrendous. However, the opening weekend of any Marvel movie usually ends with the kind of gross that many films fail to reach by the end of their theatrical run. For example, Thor: Love and Thunder, the MCU’s worst performer of 2022, opened to the tune of $144 million domestically. If the movie had closed immediately after that, it would still have been the 14th highest-grossing movie of the year.

Perhaps taking this into account, there is very little for Marvel Studios to be worried about. The simple fact is the need for fans to pack out theaters on the opening weekend gives MCU movies a head start on any other release that allows them to drop a hefty amount in subsequent weeks. Even after the second-weekend dip, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania will still take the top spot at the box office and easily see off its nearest challenger, Cocaine Bear.

It is only a few months until Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 arrives at the beginning of May. Once again, Marvel Studios will be looking to improve on the opening box office of the previous Guardians movies. It will be interesting to see how James Gunn’s Marvel swan song performs amid a summer full of big blockbuster movies.